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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd