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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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