A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."